I try and plan my water changes to avoid December, January, and February- way too cold and risky for me.
I put off the fall change into November as far as I feel comfortable based on temperature forecasts. And as soon as March arrives there is usually a nice day to get the spring one done.
So far that's worked fine- and I know that I could do a partial water change mid January if I had too.
So far this winter we've had it really warm- mostly in the 30's, so a partial change would be pretty bearable.