An upturn in the economy?

[Chas]

I sure don't know if there could possibly be any more doom and gloom in the media concerning our economy. It has been very slow around here in SoCal, and we sure don't have many dealers left in the immediate area.

But we sold three spas this week - a Vanguard, a Limelight Pulse and an Envoy. We will be ordering those tubs online later today, and we hope to pick them up Wednesday or Thursday of this week. If that works, we will have them installed and bubbling by next weekend.

I feel good about the future of our economy and the state of our country for the first time in a long time. Why? Well not because of the outcome of an election or promises made by some political party.  We have experienced three distinct, exceptional acts of kindness and support over the past several weeks - I posted about one of them just after it happened, but the thread has faded fast. That bothers me. If I had posted about the folks who sell big-ticket luxury items who are losing everything, I bet it would have drawn more interest.

Friends, I think that if we hope to turn things around it is going to be up to us. Yes, I am a man who trusts God and has seen amazing providence that I can't attribute to anything less, but right now I am simply urging us - focus on the good. The media is not going to help us at all - they are just about giddy to be able to report high un-employment claims and failing businesses large and small.

But I have seen the small-business community pulling together in ways that they would not have done under other circumstances, and I have seen families who have planned carefully, spent wisely and are now enjoying the fruit of their labors as they upgrade backyards and add a hot tub to their lives. You will, of course, never see that on the home page of your favorite news web site. But I think we need to talk about it, blog about it, shout about it if need be, and stay positive.

Many people around the world shorten the name of our country to "the States." But we are the United States, and I think this is one of those times when we need to be a little more focused on being United - we are interdependent whether we want to admit it or not, and much of what happens that is good goes unreported by the mainstream media. So it falls to us - talk up the good at work, at home at as you move about in society.

If you have saved some money for tub and a nice deck, jump on it. Prices are good right now, and there are plenty of contractors who would love to offer you a deal just to keep their crew together. And as that money gets back into circulation, those contractors and suppliers will have the scratch to go ahead with some of their plans. And it will move across our nation like a wave. Stop the doom and gloom - we, the few reading this board, could be the ones responsible for starting an economic recovery that changes a nation and impacts the global economy. Why let the media be the ones to run our lives?

 8-)

[txwillie]

Chas, I hope that you are right. The country and the world is very nervous, with good reason. Let's not let this post degrade into some political discussion about right, left, or why the situation is what it is. The fact is, and maybe I over simplify, it is the consumer that drives the economy. Without consumer confidence and the purchases that go with it, the economy slows. I have seen some pretty frightening things in the way of empty stores and the like. I live in Austin, Texas which is, by many measures, a locale and economy that is not as severely affected by this downturn as some other areas of the country, but nonetheless we have seen layoffs, closings and the like. We went to dinner last night with friends, and a restaurant that usually has a wait was able to seat us right away. All this being said, it is up to the individual to make choices to purchase or not. I feel that the media has so overhyped things that even folks with the means and the desire to make a purchase are holding off. That mentality only makes things worse. If you want to see your local business stay in business, you have to provide them with that business. I have my own plans for some more exterior renovations and landscaping projects at my house. I am going ahead with them for several reasons. I want these things. I have the means to accomplish them. Doing so provides business to the contractors, suppliers, etc. that hopefully helps keep them going. Proceeding with things that the neighbors see might spur them do do something similar or at least show them that not everyone is "hunkered down". Last, my home is my biggest and best investment. It's value will increase. This market adjustment is only temporary.

It is what you make it. Remember that.

txwillie

[Vinny]

Chas, it was a great post but unfortunately it seems that doom is what sells. I personally do not watch the news as it is only filled with garbage.

We are all suffering because a handful of people (or maybe make that handfuls) let greed get into the way of what is right. I suspect that other than a few misguided people who truely got taken the rest all came to be from manipulation.

I see it as only the strong companies/businesses will survive but I don't think the worst is here yet. My company is having layoffs because "they didn't hit their numbers" and I bet you will see more and more of that. I am hoping that this doesn't affect me but who knows.

But the turn for the better has to come from the CEOs of the companies & they aren't doing their part. The CEO of GM took a $20 million bonus a few month ago and look what's happening to GM. The CEO of Citibank is looking for his bonus as well and again look where Citibank is! And this is going on and on. Until something is done to stop the people at the top from scamming the rest of the people we are screwed!

Something that txwillie said is one of our problems - we are a consumer based society. We have very little industry. Back in the 1940's we had a lot of industries but over the years they have all been shipped out. Even Hershey bars which have been made in Hershey, PA apparently aren't made in the U.S. anymore, I bet Milton Hershey would be beside himself.

I do have faith in the American people - we are resilient and industrious but we are being sold out left and right because of greed. But unfortunately, some of the American people have the wrong idea of what this country is about. My father came here from Italy to make a better life for himself and became an American citizen fighting in WWII for the U.S. He had to learn English in order to survive and he did. I believe if we can stop all the corruption and greed we will become a great nation again. But as long as corporations are willing to sell out people for the good of the almighty dollar - it won't happen. I envy people like yourself that have made a good living (hopefully) owning your own business - I would like to but I personally don't have the drive to work as hard as someone like you does. The Walmarts and such have almost put an end to small "mom & pop" businesses and as times get tougher - we need to economize and saving a few dollars is why we (I) shop there.

The economy will turn positive, empty houses will be bought and life will return to "normal". The only problem I see is that another crisis wil happen because of the same set of misfortunes will happen again only someplace else ... with oil at $55 a barrel who cares that we need alternitive fuel!

[MarKee]

with oil at $55 a barrel who cares that we need alternitive fuel!

You don't think that as soon as the world economy improves that we won't see $5/gallon gas again?

[Bonibelle]

Vinny was being cynical. If we quickly forget those $5.00 gallons of gas, we won't be encouraged to look for alternate energy.  Which makes me think there is more than our sinking economy behind the drop in gas prices.   :-/

Wise people would use that extra gas money to invest in better energy efficiency in their homes, and alternate fuel sources like solar heat and electric. But that probably won't happen.

About 25 years ago, we faced mortgage interest rates in the double digits and gas lines. As soon as the economy took a positive turn, no one was looking at alternate energy anymore and development of solar technology slowed down to a crawl.  

[wmccall]

You don't think that as soon as the world economy improves that we won't see $5/gallon gas again?

I am really trying to keep politics out of this, but its relevant to this thread as this thread is to the industry.  Obama made reference a couple of times to cracking down on oil price speculators.  I wanted more detail on that when I was still undecided, and I really believe the press gave him a free pass on a lot of statements, but in this case it might have been good if they would have dug into that more or if he had elabarated on it. I truely think the worst influence on our economy the last year or two has been when the people setting gas prices started using oil price futures, which are always volitile.

[rcnitro]

I work for a major truck manufacturer and Im here to tell you we are hurting! We have about 800 of our 1600+ employees on layoff right now. The rest of us have been working 32 hour weeks since May and have been working some 24 hour weeks here lately. Management is hoping we have hit the bottom of this but cant be certain. I hope things turn around soon so I can get back to 40 hours a week so I can finally buy that hot tub we've been wanting.

[txwillie]

Wise people would use that extra gas money to invest in better energy efficiency in their homes, and alternate fuel sources like solar heat and electric. But that probably won't happen.

One of the upgrades to my house will be to replace the windows. I expect about a 3 year payback. Another is to replace the old flex duct in my attic. I expect a 1 year payback on that. Probably put some extra insulation in the attic while I'm up there.

txwillie

[Bonibelle]

Not sure where you live Txwillie but I believe Pa is considering energy tax incentives for next year. I am hoping there will be additional federal incentives. I plan to do some insulating as well, but will do it the beginning of the year..just in case I can get that tax break

[Vinny]

Bonnie got my message. I am old enough to remember the late '70's with no gas and gas lines. How quickly we forget what it was like. I am happy to pay $4.00 a gallon because we have gas - it really sucked not having gas! I've even heard reports that the alternative fuel ideas are being scrapped because the oil price is that low.

Bill said: I am really trying to keep politics out of this, but its relevant to this thread as this thread is to the industry.  Obama made reference a couple of times to cracking down on oil price speculators.  I wanted more detail on that when I was still undecided, and I really believe the press gave him a free pass on a lot of statements, but in this case it might have been good if they would have dug into that more or if he had elabarated on it. I truely think the worst influence on our economy the last year or two has been when the people setting gas prices started using oil price futures, which are always volitile.

Bill, I am not talking politics here, I'm talking about greed and what was right vs wrong! I knew enough to not get in over my head with my mortgage, I knew that if I had debt that it would affect how much I can borrow and I knew that tops for housing is approximately 28% of monthly income. Why then are we in trouble - people (mortgage lenders) didn't play by the rules and let greed get in the way and people (mortgage recipients) were either too stupid or were extremely smart to get in over their heads and cry about how they can't make ends meet! Even further were the "rating agencies" who rated someome with -FFF credit as A+. The American dream of owning a home is not a Right it is a priviledge! Some of us out here know that if I'm paying $1500 a month for a mortgage that I can't afford a luxury automobile and a boat and take vacations and ...

I too want a 3% loan even though I did the right thing and not screw anybody just so my family can have it a little better. But since I pay my mortgage, thought enough about my expenses and didn't listen to dirt bag mortgage lenders (which I had some) about how much more I can borrow - I'm not qualified for a bailout.

And then comes what I said before - the CEO's. Except for a few that may be out there and as Chas said  - good doesn't get noticed, these "great" corporate leaders are not even held accountable for their companies actions - and are looking for bonuses.

No politics here, just some good old fashioned American beliefs on what needs to be fixed!

[Zep]

chas i pray you are right, but i dont think you are

i think we are in for very, very hard economic times

recently i have seen a large increase in people seeking employment
i would say employment requests have thripled
more and more retail spaces are vacant due to business' going under

none of these so called "bail-outs" seem to be working
now more and more industries are saying "i wanna bail-out too"

i also think we could have an early Obama term al Qaeda attack

yes i am pretty gloomy, but i think reality is pretty gloomy too

[Bonibelle]

I read this morning that money slated for the development of energy improvements for the auto industry will now be used in an auto bailout....That makes no sense to me..why bail em out if they will just build vehicles that will continue to feed the oil demand. The faster that we are free from all foreign oil, the better..so now we will encourage them to just just start the cycle again???

I'm with Vinny, I have a real hard time feeling sorry for the guy with the $500,000.00 house who is also using a disproportinate amount of energy because he wanted a BIG house that he couldn't afford in the beginning.  I don't want to bail him out..I don't want to bail anyone out..Guess I wouldn't make a very effective Socialist!!

[Bonibelle]

Guess I should correct, the $500.00.00 house now worth $300,000.00

[SerjicalStrike]

I read this morning that money slated for the development of energy improvements for the auto industry will now be used in an auto bailout....That makes no sense to me..why bail em out if they will just build vehicles that will continue to feed the oil demand. The faster that we are free from all foreign oil, the better..so now we will encourage them to just just start the cycle again???

It shouldn't matter what kind of cars the car companies build.  There should be no bailouts.  If a company cannot operate within the scope of profits it can make from its sales, it should fail.  If American companies cannot build a car that American consumers will buy, then they deserve to fail.  Between unions and government regulations, it is no wonder why so many companies move overseas.

Free Market and Supply and Demand ftw!!

[hottubdan]

Guess I should correct, the $500.00.00 house now worth $300,000.00

It was a $300,000 house to begin with!